Checking econometric models in times of market and consumer change

Keywords: Econometric model, market and consumer changes, GDP, debt, forecast

Abstract

The aim of the article is to present the checking of econometric models in times of market and consumer changes. The development of the SFP balance, the budget deficit against real GDP in the years 2010-2019 and the debt forecast for the years 2021-2024 are presented here. It can be noted that different factors in different countries shape the budget balance. In 2009, the Baltic States were in the most difficult situation. The budget deficit and real GDP in Poland mean that a large part of the deficits in the economic situation is subordinated here. This shows that it is not cyclical factors that are behind it, but factors related to fiscal policy. The biggest problem was the problem in which the global financial crisis began and our deficits began to increase rapidly. The source of coverage had to be found. An additional problem was the pension reform related to OFE when we did not see it in the deficit, but we still had to incur a debt for funds transferred to OFE about PLN 20 billion per year. There was an idea to take some of these funds out of the sector. The pandemic has cast a shadow over our finances. The strategy prepared before the pandemic assumed that public debt would increase in nominal terms, but there would also be a significant decrease in relative terms to GDP. The flexibility that took place in 2015 caused that there was an expenditure expansion in Poland, and this consequently led to the appearance of the "gluttony effect". In Poland, there was a high increase in GDP, but Poles spent more, which made Poles "overeat" this increase. In addition, we are glad that we have a high GDP, and in fact it is falsified by inflation.

Author Biography

Marcelina Słaba – Wiącek, State Higher Vocational School Memorial of Prof. Stanislaw Tarnowski in Tarnobrzeg

Mgr., lecturer

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Abstract views: 28
PDF Downloads: 15
Published
2022-06-28
How to Cite
Słaba – Wiącek, M. (2022). Checking econometric models in times of market and consumer change. VUZF Review, 7(2), 127-134. https://doi.org/10.38188/2534-9228.22.2.13
Section
Articles